The Generalized Discrimination Score for Ensemble Forecasts

Ensemble Forecasts Using Rank Histograms

4 Any decision making process that relies on a probabilistic forecast of future events necessarily 5 requires a calibrated forecast. This paper proposes new methods for empirically assessing 6 forecast calibration in a multivariate setting where the probabilistic forecast is given by an 7 ensemble of equally probable forecast scenarios. Multivariate properties are mapped to a single 8 dimension...

Precipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts

Papers published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions are under open-access review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures ◭ ◮ ◭ ◮ Back Close Full Screen / Esc Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion EGU Abstract A procedure is presented to construct ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts of pr...

Using Generalized Forecasts for Online Currency Conversion

El-Yaniv et al. presented an optimal on-line algorithm for the unidirectional currency conversion problem based on the threat-based strategy. Later, al-Binali pointed out that this algorithm, while certainly optimal in terms of the competitive ratio, may be too conservative from “gamblers’ view points.” He proposed the trading strategy using the forecast that the rate will increase to at least ...

Testing new ensemble forecasts of solar irradiance

The increment of solar energy production requires an accurate estimation of surface solar irradiance. A forecast of surface solar irradiance allows estimate the energy production, i.e., to minimize the fluctuations in the electric grid supply. In this work a numerical weather forecast model provides surface solar radiation estimations over a coastal region with changeable weather and typically ...

Linear Ensemble Methods for Multiclass Discrimination